Three reasons Republicans could lose their House majority before 2024

by · Washington Examiner

With Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announcing he will retire at the end of the year, Rep. George Santos’s (R-NY) expulsion, and Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) leaving for another role, House Republicans could lose their majority before 2024.

House Republicans hold a razor-thin four-seat majority, but that number will drop to two going into the new year. The margin for error for House Republicans is essentially invisible.

KEVIN MCCARTHY LEAVING CONGRESS AT END OF YEAR: 'LEAVING THE HOUSE BUT NOT THE FIGHT'

Kevin McCarthy

The House is at 221-213 with Santos’s seat vacant, and the departures of McCarthy and Johnson will leave Republicans with only three votes they can afford to lose.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaks with reporters as Republicans meet to decide who to nominate to be the new House speaker Tuesday, Oct. 24, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington.

McCarthy announced Wednesday that he will step down from Congress at the end of the year, leaving California's 20th Congressional District to hold a special election to fill his seat.

"No matter the odds, or personal cost, we did the right thing," McCarthy wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed about his time in Congress. "That may seem out of fashion in Washington these days, but delivering results for the American people is still celebrated across the country."

His exit follows a tumultuous session as speaker of the House, before being ousted from his role in October. McCarthy did not secure the speaker's gavel easily, as the Republican-led chamber started the year off with a 15-ballot saga to elect him.

George Santos

Rep. George Santos (R-NY) leaves the Capitol after being expelled from the House of Representatives on Friday, Dec. 1, 2023, in Washington. The House has voted to expel Santos following a critical ethics report on his conduct that included converting campaign donations for his own use, making him just the sixth member in the chamber’s history to be ousted by his colleagues.

After the expulsion of Santos on Friday, Republicans have to maintain their majority through another special election before the general election in 2024. The embattled New York Republican was ousted from his seat by the House in a final vote of 311-114, with 105 Republicans siding with nearly all Democrats to remove him.

Santos previously survived two earlier efforts to expel him from Congress but faltered the third time after a scathing House Ethics Committee investigation uncovered “overwhelming evidence” in a 56-page report that he engaged in fraud and other misconduct.

Bill Johnson

Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) speaks at a campaign rally on Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022, in Youngstown, Ohio.

Johnson announced he will not seek reelection in 2024 after accepting a job offer to become president of Youngstown State University. He will serve in Congress for several more months before starting his new role.

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“After much thought and prayerful deliberation, I have accepted the offer to lead Youngstown State University and will not be seeking an 8th term in Congress," Johnson wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "As I’ve stated previously, I wasn’t looking for another job, because I love the one I have serving the people of Eastern Ohio in the U.S. House. This was an extremely difficult decision."

In recent years, the size of the majorities in both the House and the Senate has typically trended downward, and House Republicans have added pressure to maintain control going into a presidential election year.